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In the course of the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Hungary's prime minister stood out as the sole EU chief to back the Republican candidate. This backing came as no shock, given the Hungarian leader's adoption of divisive theories like the "great replacement" theory and the crackdowns on journalistic liberties. Commentators observe that Hungary's premier more or less pioneered the Make America Great Again campaign, with ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon lauding Orbán as a precursor to Trump.

Electoral Support In advance of Hungary's Polls

In recent days, with crucial Hungarian elections just half a year off, Donald Trump offered electoral assistance. While Orbán seeks a fifth term in office presiding over a country he calls an illiberal democracy, his Fidesz party currently trails in the polls. A meeting to Washington produced more than some autographed Trump merchandise; it brought considerably more valuable electoral advantages.

Waivers and Economic Protections

Although before admonishing European states on the imperative to halt all fuel purchases from the Russian Federation, and threatening sanctions against states still to import Russian energy, Donald Trump approved to grant a special exemption for Hungary – the top consumer among EU members of Russian crude. According to Mr Orbán, the US government also agreed to provide a economic protection to Budapest should it faces any upcoming challenges, especially as the European Union is still blocking billions in EU funding to Hungary due to violations of legal standards.

The particulars of this deal are somewhat murky. Yet Donald Trump has shown his readiness to assist like-minded partners as the US provided a $20bn emergency credit line to the Argentine leader, the South American leader. Although Mr Orbán was unable to arrange a Trump trip to Budapest to Budapest, the discussions nevertheless proved a productive session.

Brussels' Worries and International Implications

Among European leaders, the US president's move will have highlighted the geopolitical stakes of the forthcoming polls, ahead of which the moderate contender, Péter Magyar, has a solid advantage in the polls. European leaders have learned not to expect reliable policies from the Trump White House, and have grown used to the American leader's moves to diminish the European Union. However the special treatment for Orbán – which came at the price of an pledge to purchase American natural gas and nuclear power – flagrantly undermines EU aspirations to end imports of Russian energy by 2027.

• Since 2022, the largest EU buyers of Russian oil, Hungary and Slovakia, have provided more than ten billion pounds to the Moscow's war operations.
• Simultaneously, the Hungarian government has repeatedly used the veto power to impede moves in Ukraine’s EU accession talks.
• As Europe strives to create a coordinated approach for aiding the Ukrainian government, and enhancing its leverage in any future peace negotiations, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the negotiating table continues to be a major hurdle.

Opposition Stance

Mr Magyar has steered clear of vowing a significant change on the Ukraine conflict, and focused his campaigning on internal matters, while emphasizing the need for the country to start acting as a productive EU partner. After enduring repeated disruptions, Brussels can only hold out hope. Mr Orbán’s indifference to core EU ideals, including the support for minority protections and the autonomy of civic groups, has persisted as a deeply troubling issue for the EU. His ongoing blocking tactics on the Ukraine issue threatens to weaken its long-term safety.